Commentary: Born Ready in the Jayhawk rearview

When it comes to recruiting in college hoops, a "What if?" game could keep me entertained for days. There are so many variables that go into a player's decision on which school is the best fit. Playing time, location, coaching staff, style of play, and team prestige are just a few factors that race through the minds of every hoops prospect. As an avid Jayhawk fan, following the storylines on the recruiting trail is a year round passion of mine. But this past year had more twists and turns than a housewife's favorite daytime drama.

Supply & Demand
After Kansas' debacle against Michigan State in the Sweet 16, it was no secret that Bill Self's top priority was landing an elite wing player heading into the 2009-2010 season. Despite the availability of immediate playing time on the likely preseason #1 team in the country, numerous wing prospects elected to take their talents elsewhere. Jordan Hamilton, Michael Snaer and Dominic Cheek all turned down scholarship offers from Kansas. But this was just a preview for the biggest recruiting soap operas in recent memory.

The Lance Stephenson/Xavier Henry Saga
We all know the exhausted story by now, but here's a refresher. With only one scholarship available, Bill Self appeared torn between the last two available bluechip wing players in the class of '09. Lance Stephenson, a brash, hard-nosed kid from Brooklyn with a monster game and an ego to match. He was a walking red flag to schools across the country. But through it all, Kansas never wavered on their goal of signing 'Born Ready' and the circus of NCAA investigations that would likely follow him. All signs pointed to a Lance-to-Lawrence announcement on March 31st, when he was scheduled to make his decision public at the McDonald's All American game. And that's when all hell broke loose...

Former Memphis coach John Calipari accepted Kentucky's 8-year, $31.65 million deal, essentially releasing his former recruits from their signed letters of intent. The most notable member of that class was Xavier Henry, who chose Memphis over Kansas a few months earlier. Calipari's move prompted Stephenson to postpone his announcement, after it was obvious Kansas was actively pursuing Henry - a Jayhawk pedigree. As the 'safe pick' of the two, Henry was thought of more likely to buy into Self's system and was clearly their #1 choice.

In the end, Xavier Henry chose to play for Kansas, following in his parents' footsteps... although there was never a dull moment along the way. As for Lance Stephenson, every school with even remote interest stopped pursuing him altogether. He eventually found a home with the Cincinnati Bearcats. So the Jayhawks got their #1 choice in Henry, but could have just as easily ended up with Stephenson if Calipari had never left Memphis. Let's take a walk down that road... How would Kansas have fared with 'Born Ready' donning crimson and blue instead?

Tale of the Tape

Lance Stephenson and Xavier Henry were billed as 'one-and-done' prospects coming out of high school. If not for the NCAA's one-year rule, both likely would have made the leap straight to the pros.
With a full collegiate regular season under their belts, let's do a brief statistical comparison. Either of these players would have been brought in to fill the shoes of Brandon Rush. Over his collegiate career, Rush averaged 13.6 points per game, shot 43.5% from three-point range, and nearly had a 1:1 assist/turnover ratio, at 0.97. As you can see, Xavier Henry compares quite favorably to Rush, the Jayhawks' 3-time leading scorer. Although, Lance's overall numbers aren't too shabby, his 20.6% shooting from deep is somewhat troubling. And then there are the off-the-court issues, but more on that later...

The blueprint opponents use for beating Kansas is simple:

1. Keep them out of transition, eliminating easy buckets and negating their superb athleticism
2. Deny easy entry passes to the post, forcing them to take guarded, long-range jumpers
3. Work the shot clock, making them guard for as long as possible on the defensive end

So if Stephenson was sporting the #1 jersey for the Jayhawks instead of Henry, would Kansas be worse off? Well, without an accurate long range bomber on the wing, they'd likely see a heavy dose of zone defenses or slouching man-to-man geared at stopping any penetration whatsoever. And with the isolation, dribble-drive being Stephenson's bread-and-butter, could he still be effective?

Scouting Report
On the court: An ultra-aggressive guard who relies on brute strength to overpower anyone in his way, Stephenson is a double-edged sword as a teammate. He can score in bunches and is extremely creative with the ball. Stephenson relies on his instincts, while constantly in attack mode off the dribble. But his overbearing tendency to play one-on-one, and his quick (inaccurate) trigger from the outside often disrupt the flow of a team's offense. He is a black hole with tunnel vision, which further magnifies his inability to play without the ball in his hands.

Off the court: Here is a great read from The New Republic's Jason Zengerle entitled Empty Garden. Zengerle compares Stephenson to a tragic hero of sorts, the poster child for young basketball stars in New York, a one-time hoops hotbed. Billed as a prodigy before he was a teenager, Lance has been dealing with the pressure of unreasonable expectations for his entire life. Not even the all-time leading scorer in New York high school basketball history could live up to the hype.

Ace's verdict
I was always hoping for Kansas to sign Stephenson instead of Henry throughout their entire recruitment. He was the more dynamic athlete and possessed a swagger and toughness that Bill Self loves. A majority of schools soured on him due to potential character issues, but it felt like Jayhawk nation took a collective sigh of relief when Kansas passed on Stephenson. In all likelihood, his best and worst attributes have simply been blown out of proportion over the years. From a player nicknamed 'Born Ready', Lance recently showed some maturity, announcing he needed an extra year of seasoning and would return to school for his sophomore campaign.

You don't have to look very far for evidence of Bill Self's ability to bring in a variety of personalities and puzzle together a cohesive team. Granted this was done with tongue-in-cheek on Senior Night, but Bill Self described Sherron Collins, his street tough point guard from Chicago, as a "hard-headed, moody, stubborn, cocky, pain in the butt." Sound familiar? It should, because those are the exact same words scouts use to describe Stephenson. Another example would be the Morris brothers, Marcus and Markieff. Both are known to have quick tempers, short fuses and volatile personalities. And although they still display poor body language from time to time, the twins matured by leaps and bounds over their freshman seasons.

In the end, Xavier Henry is the better fit for the 2009-2010 Jayhawk squad, simply because of his superior shooting percentage from deep. Henry's pure stroke from behind the arc stretches defenses, which is the missing piece to the Jayhawks' quest for their second National Championship in three years. And that is something Stephenson wouldn't be able to provide.